El Niño and the Cold Chain in 2026

The Bureau of Meteorology has declared that El Niño conditions are now active across Australia, bringing an increased likelihood of below-average rainfall, higher temperatures and an elevated risk of drought this year. Meteorologists are forecasting a strong to very strong event, with the effects expected to persist well into the second half of the year. While the severity and duration can vary across regions, El Niño events have historically been associated with hotter and drier conditions across large parts of eastern and southern Australia, placing pressure on agricultural production, water availability and critical infrastructure.

For Australia's cold chain sector, prolonged hot and dry conditions present a range of operational challenges. Higher ambient temperatures increase demand for refrigeration and temperature-controlled transport, leading to greater energy consumption and operating costs for cold stores, distribution centres and refrigerated fleets. Agricultural producers may also face reduced yields and quality impacts due to drought conditions, potentially affecting the volume and availability of fresh produce, meat and dairy products moving through the supply chain. Add to that an increased risk of bushfires and extreme weather events can disrupt transport networks, threaten power reliability and place additional pressure on logistics operations.

As a result, cold chain businesses will need to focus on energy efficiency, contingency planning and supply chain resilience to maintain product integrity and service levels throughout the El Niño period.

For the Australian cold chain, preparing for El Niño is not just about managing higher temperatures, it's about building resilience across facilities, transport networks and supply chains. Businesses should review the capacity and efficiency of refrigeration systems to ensure they can cope with sustained periods of extreme heat. Preventative maintenance programmes become even more important, as refrigeration equipment, condensers and cooling systems will be working harder and are more vulnerable to failure during heatwaves. Organisations should also assess backup power arrangements and business continuity plans, particularly in regions where electricity networks may come under pressure from increased demand or bushfire-related disruptions.

Supply chain planning will also be critical. Cold chain operators should work closely with growers, producers and customers to understand potential impacts on product availability and volumes. Reviewing transport routes, fuel supplies and contingency options can help minimise disruptions caused by bushfires, road closures or extreme weather events. Many businesses are also using periods of elevated energy demand to accelerate investments in energy-efficient refrigeration, solar generation, battery storage and other technologies that reduce operating costs while improving reliability. Ultimately, organisations that focus on preparedness, flexibility and collaboration across the supply chain will be best positioned to manage the challenges that a prolonged El Niño event may bring.

For RWTA members, the key message is that resilience starts before the heat arrives.

Facilities should review emergency response plans, test backup systems, train staff on heat-related risks, and ensure temperature monitoring and alarm systems are functioning effectively.

While El Niño creates additional operational challenges, it also provides an opportunity for the cold chain industry to, yet again, demonstrate its critical role in protecting food quality, food security and supply chain continuity during periods of environmental stress.